Luck and Mindgames

I've noticed that, in the competitive community for Pokemon (and everything else ever, really), any moves marginally reliant on luck are disregarded and ignored. Even in favor of virtually-useless filler moves that are literally being used because the Pokemon has no other decent options.

This is a pretty expansive selection of moves. There's low-accuracy moves, like most sleep-inducing moves and Thunder and the like. There's also all the weak moves that have a higher chance of causing a status problem in exchange. These things are NOT used. Ever. Personally, I don't really see why.

Let's consider paralysis for a moment. Everyone expects to get hit with Thunder Wave by an Electric type, or by general status-support walls. It's also, more rarely, caused by Grass types, and still rarer by Body Slam, but ONLY from a Normal type. STAB, guys!

Then, on the other hand... how about Bounce? "Oh bluh, two turn move! Counter will be switched in!" Except... the opponent is wasting their turn to switch, right? And then your Pokemon drops on the counter... with a solid 30% chance to paralyze. Maybe it's just my stupid way of thinking, but it seems like a free way for some (albeit shaky) status support from Pokemon that aren't normally known for that purpose. Not to mention that some users of Bounce (Mienshao) are advantaged against a lot of easy counters.

Frankly, this is a favorite (and surprisingly effective) strategy of mine. When a sweeper is in critical condition, everybody expects either a switch, or a last-ditch power attack. Nobody expects their Metagross to be paralyzed by Force Palm; who uses Force Palm? Likewise, who thinks the sweeper they just sent a wall to deal with is going to use Toxic, the infamous bane of damage-sponges everywhere? Seriously, why not? Sooo many of these Serebii-endorsed strategies I see are like "Moves 1-3 because strategy. Move 4 because why the hell not." And yet that last move is always something... painfully predictable.

I honestly just -love- making "stupid" attack choices like that. Of course, nobody would be crazy enough to try something like that. Which is why nobody prepares for it. Which is why it works, in a deranged gambit sort of way.

Anyways, that's my sleep-deprived rambling. If you wanna discuss or debunk, go ahead and reply.

I actually use inaccurate-but-powerful moves with occasional frequency on my pokemon, particularly those pokemon who aren't strong enough to get by on (say) thunderbolt. Electabuzz, for example, isn't (Or well, wasn't - I don't believe this has changed in Black/White but it may have) quite potent enough to really play in the big leagues of standard play, but having the power of thunder gives him an edge.

The big catch, however, is that I cannot count how many times a miss or possibly an unlucky swing has not only resulted in my losing, but also gotten me swept... or at least put me at a very large disadvantage and forcing me to expend my derailer. If you're staring at a salamance who's dragon danced, missing with blizzard not only (likely) kills the pokemon who attempted it, but also murders another pokemon of your team who now has to try to solve that salamance.

The other flaw, then, is that while those moves are fairly high-risk, the reward is merely moderate. Thunder is strong, but it's not tremendously better than thunderbolt. So it's high-risk, moderate-reward - which may not be worth it in most cases.

That said, the element of surprise is a powerful one in pokemon. And banking on a little luck once in awhile helps spice things up and increase the fun - using abnormal pokemon can help with this, as hardly anyone knows what to do when staring at a Linoone in competitive play (for example), and now that everyone runs Conkeldurr, people don't know 'will that machoke of Garz's survive a psycho cut? It probably has eviolite or he wouldn't use be using it competitively, but I don't know how sturdy machoke is'...

In the case of bounce and similars, my personal problem with them is that it allows the enemy to decide who takes the flying hit. I mean, if I'm staring at (say) a blaziken and I bounce, the enemy could decide 'Eh, I'd rather not lose my blaziken, I'll lose my [soandso] instead'. Or send in something to properly soak the flying it, but even if not that's an aid I'm a little hesistant with handing over.

I agree with you on every point... except, oddly, Bounce. Bounce really just has an odd gimmick among two-turn moves, in that it has a chance to cause a status problem. Not Dig nor Fly nor Razor Wind nor even Shadow Force can claim that. So, where other multi-turn moves essentially give the other person a free switch for little to no damage, Bounce can also deal a crippling status problem. And as far as damaging moves with a chance to cause a status go, it has a good chance. It's right up there with Spark and Body Slam, other moves that tend to be used especially for the paralysis chance.

As for switching in a counter? It really depends. Bounce is mostly learned by... not Flying types. A lot of things that learn it aren't especially strong, but coming from a Mienshao or something, it's a potentially decent blow. On top of that... Mienshao is pretty fast, and most things that resist Flying moves aren't all that good against it (Rock and Steel, especially. A lot of other physical walls, too, disregarding Poison ones and Steel mixed with something good against Fighting). That's not the important thing, though.

The important thing is, whatever you have take the hit has a 30% chance of getting paralyzed. This is crippling if it hits a sweeper, irritating if it hits a wall, and extremely helpful if you have something in the wings packing Electro Ball, which is now pretty well guaranteed to have 150 base power on that target.

I agree completely on high-power moves; 70% accuracy isn't worth the power boost on Thunder and Blizzard, though I'm willing to risk it on Fire Blast. They normally aren't worth the risk, unless you're using the Pokemon as an all-or-nothing gamble anyway. I guess I'd rather trade power for status problems than accuracy for power, is what I mean.

Alternate tl;dr form: if your movepool is limited and you're complaining about how you have like 2 good attacks, maybe try something unorthodox to fill the rest of the slots instead of a desperate dredging for usable sweeping moves. You might surprise yourself.

When I was at Worlds, I was hanging out with the UK Junior Champion for a good while and entered some side tournaments with him, and he was up against this guy and just says:

"Did you seriously just use Fly? I love you." And reached out and shook his hand x3

But yah, what Garz said. Sometimes it is better to go with the lower damaging move just because the potential reward isnt worth it. I do like the idea of using bounce though! The 30% paralyze chance is intresting. Didn't know it did that!

Also, Thunder and Hurricane were made specifically for Rain teams. They don't just get boosted to 100% accuracy, they bypass the accuracy check altogether l3

Not only do they bypass the accuracy check, they (or at least Thunder; not sure about Hurricane, or Blizzard in Hail for that matter) also get a 30% chance of hitting through Protect or Detect. Not only can you not dodge it, you can't block it either.

Another thing on the issue of accuracy: Compoundeyes boosts it by 30%. Not like X+30, but more like X+.30X. It's still significant, though. It boosts Thunder and friends up to 91% accuracy, and most moves above that just won't miss at all. Only problem is, most Bug types are too weak to use it, or trade it out for other abilities upon evolving; Yanma trades it for Tinted Lens, for example.

Unpredictability is always important. A large part of the game is being able to accurately predict what your opponent is going to do, and defend against it accordingly. I've had plenty of matches be determined solely on which player was better able to read the moves of the other, while keeping their own actions unexpected. That one unorthodox move can mean all the difference.

Regarding Bounce, I personally dislike multi-turn moves strictly because of the chance that if the opponent has Detect or Protect, they essentially become worthless with the exception of Shadow Force. Not to say I never use such moves, but usually as stall tactics for status damage and the like. For example, I like giving Sandslash Dig while also teaching it Sandstorm to go with its Sand Veil ability, which I usually combine with Bright Powder, and a Double Team or two. Not the best strategy in the world, but I prefer tactics that I have fun using rather than always those that are necessarily good. Such moves are also nice with a hold item like Leftovers, or to avoid your own everything-hitting move during a double or triple battle.

As for Compound Eyes, while it is true that mostly weak pokemon get the ability, it's thanks to that ability I have a very viscious Butterfree. The number of pokemon I've defeated with that thing thanks to its ability and moveset goes to show that stats aren't always everything.